Sunday, March 19, 2017

There are no experts. Thank God

There are no experts.

The election of Donald Trump as president proved that.

Thank God and 63 million patriotic Americans.


Professor Tom Nichols wrote in Foreign Affairs:
How America Lost Faith in Expertise. And Why That's a Giant Problem
Actually, rejecting the experts is a good thing because the experts have been so wrong about so many things in recent years.

That's because the current university system's emphasis on credentials instead of knowledge is churning out elitists and Marxists who ignore facts, science, and history in favor of The Narrative.

Intelligent people reject false prophets.

We have and we continue to do so.

Taki Theodoracopulos wrote today, "Despite the fact that Donald Trump gained the presidency by beating both political parties and roughly 99% of the mainstream media — and despite the fact that according to most estimates, he took every dollar he inherited from his father and multiplied it by 100 — his critics seem hardwired to depict him as an incompetent boob and a financial failure."

Taki was taking to task Rachel Maddow, PhD., over her bumbling attempt to expose Trump as a tax cheat with a piece of paper that showed he paid $38 million in income and FICA taxes in 2005 on an income of $153 million.

She relied on the expertise of David Cay Johnston a "Recipient of the Pulitzer Prize, an IRE Medal and the George Polk Award." His books include "Perfectly Legal: The Covert Campaign to Rig Our Tax System to Benefit the Super Rich — and Cheat Everybody Else," and "Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense (and Stick You With the Bill)."

If paying $38 million in federal taxes on $153 million in income is cheating on one's taxes, then we finally found the one area where Trump is incompetent.

The experts have been wrong for so long that we should be glad to be rid of them.

Nutrition experts seem to get everything wrong. Consider this compilation of myths. I have no idea whether they are myths, by the way. They may be true. We don't know. How do you make public policy when you don't know?

Or consider the Doomsday Clock. All my life the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has told me we are only minutes from nuclear annihilation. The closest we came to anyone using nukes was in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. But nevertheless, we have been minutes from atomic obliteration since 1945.

When I was a teen, the experts told us the world would be thrown into chaos when the population hit 5 billion in 2000.

We hit 7 billion and there was no mass starvation, or war for precious metals.

In the 1970s, experts warned us of global cooling.

In the 1990s, experts warned us of global warming.

Now experts warn us of climate change.

Peak Oil -- the moment when we start to run out of it -- keeps being delayed by advances in technology, the most recent being the perfection and popularization of hydraulic fracturing to tap into the oil locked in the shale formations.

The expert on all things known to man -- Barack Obama -- told us we cannot just drill our way out of this.

The town fool (well, if you live in SNL-ville) Sarah Palin told us, "Drill, baby, drill."

The expert on all things known to man -- Barack Obama -- told us we could keep our doctor and save $2,500 a year on premiums under his health insurance plan.

The racist Tea Party (again, if you live in SNL-ville) told us premiums would rise, deductibles would rise, and you would not be able to keep your doctor.

The expert on all things known to man -- Barack Obama -- told us the Islamic State was the JV team.

The expert on all things known to man -- Barack Obama -- told us Iran was not seeking nukes, and that President Bush was just rattling sabers.

Need I rub the noses of the experts in their predictions about Donald Trump?

As Glenn Reynolds wrote:
It was experts that gave us the financial crisis, it was experts that gave us the Middle East meltdown, it was experts who gave us the obesity epidemic and the opioid crisis. And yet the experts pay no price for their failures, and cling bitterly to their credentials and self-esteem, while claiming that the problem lies in the anti-intellectualism of ordinary citizens.
Skepticism is our savior in a world of experts.

Now some may say that I am an expert on President Trump, but I am not.

I have no magic formula or scientific method to reach the conclusions that I have reached about his rise to the presidency and his presidency itself.

I just think for myself.

To be sure, I read the opinions of others (often disguised as news stories) which help me formulate my own opinions -- often going in the opposite direction based solely on the track record of the Paul Krugmans of the world.

But I am only human, born to make mistakes.

I trust God, and have faith in the observation that "There is a special providence for drunkards, fools, and the United States of America."

That guides me through the shoals of public opinion.

***

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"Exceptional Americans 2: The Capitalists" (Kindle only).

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19 comments:

  1. It was about 70 years ago when I first heard that the sky was falling. This morning, as usual, the first thing I did was poke my head out the back door and looked up. You never know.

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  2. repeated failure and self correction makes a real "expert'. As Cicero says there is a huge gap between words and deeds. Most of the experts you quote are wordsmith experts but have no constructive ability. They couldn't even help themselves in any practical sense since they have never encountered the bitter public and personal consequence of actual failure. As a result They tend to become acolytes of some other more important expert, usually dead, and quote him expertly all day long to avoid being personally put to the test.

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  3. I remember the BAS from back int eh early 1980's when I was in high school. It was treated like the Oracle at Delphi, good old Ronnie Ray-Gun and the USA - YEEE-HAAW! was a-going to destroy the world because Russians play chess and Americans play Chutes 'n' Ladders or something. Anyhow, the Russians were sober responsible adults - back then to all of the correct thinking people - and the USA was full of imbeciles and the only reason the button wasn't pushed was because the Americans were too stupid to remember where they put it.

    And now Donald Trump is president and we are almost back to the show. Except now the Russians are the enemy manipulating the White House. But the USA is still the greatest threat to world peace; don't ever forget that.

    - Mikey NTH

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  4. All my life I've heard "Experts" say: "Question Authority".

    I guess the experts should take their own advice.

    I never realized that Oxford University - Rachel Maddow's supposed Alma Mater, had a Doctorate in Stupidity program.

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    Replies
    1. All my life I've heard "Experts" say: "Question Authority". Mr. Surber questions them, and I expect that all of us but gadfly do, too. Well, there may be some anon Anons who don't.

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  5. I once had a patient write up a complaint about me in the following way:
    I went to Teapartydoc (heh, thought I'd use my name, didn't you?) With such and such problem. He did the tests, and told me I had X. Then he outlined all the options and asked me what I wanted to do.

    Some people, perhaps most, just want to be led by the hand. The reason we have "experts" is the same reason there are witch doctors still throwing bones in Africa.

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  6. It's not that people are rejecting experts. It's that they're rejecting charlatans pretending to be experts.

    People go to doctors because they have some belief in their expertise. Likewise a host of other professions. If your car comes back from the shop worse than when it went, you go to another mechanic.

    The challenge is simple. "How can you claim to be an expert if you're never right?" If they can't get it right, they're not an expert in that field.

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  7. Book smart and experience poor. The experts don't have a clue. Thomas Sowell's "Intellectuals and Society" put the wood to experts.
    I have learned the most from several friends who have no more than a 7th grade education but decades of real life experience in many fields. They may not speak with impeccable grammar but they have horse sense and smarts. I love to sit with them, have coffee and listen.

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    1. "Book smart and experience poor."

      Doesn't that just describe everything that is wrong with so many "elites" these days?

      - Mikey NTH

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    2. Sure does. I have two "elite" big city cousins who can't change a lightbulb.

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    3. When I used to work in an underground mine, there was a young "shifter" (boss) who was also a mine engineer. He had constant run-ins with a couple of highly experience miners. He always said "well, according to the book" when he tried to get them to do things his way. They would just wait until he left and do what they wanted to do in the first place. They nicknamed the guy "bookworm".

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  8. When I was a teenager (mid 60s), there was a book about all the predictions made about society and technology in the Industrial Age (19th and early 20th centuries), stuff like the US Patent Office ought to be closed (we're talking 1890s) because everything had been invented.

    The title?

    "The Experts Speak".

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  9. My favorite definition of expert" is "some guy from out of town."

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  10. My favorite definition of expert" is "some guy from out of town."

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  11. Need I rub the noses of the experts in their predictions about Donald Trump?

    Trump the ...Whatever. Keep em coming Sir!

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  12. An ex is a has been, a pert is something under pressure, thus we have a bunch of has beens, under pressure.

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  13. The problem with the current crop of experts is that they don't ask "why?". Know why, and the what and how and maybe the what and when and who will take care of themselves.

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  14. Maybe the "experts" should keep their "expertise" to themselves. Most people just want to get along in life without a bunch of know-it-alls telling them what they can and can't do. Especially if it's going to cost them money. Common sense has a value much higher than "expertise." - Elric

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  15. A true expert is Dr. Victor Davis Hanson who is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an author on the classics, raised on a his grandfather's farm working with the Mexican labor and still an owner of that same farm in the California Central Valley: http://www.asmeascholars.org/professor-victor-davis-hanson/ He straddles the fence between being an intellectual and a man with logic, reasoning and common sense. His article on seeing California being turned into an image of a 3rd world country due to illegal immigration with the aid of the willing accomplices of its progressive leadership is scary. This article shows his grasp of knowledge: https://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/california-21st-century-wild-west/

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